Apr 3, 2023 | Economic Transformation Signals
Nan Nelson, Envision Board Member
As you explore creating scenarios to introduce possible, plausible futures to your organization, consider how award-winning professionals — science fiction writers — do this. Not the folks who write Star Wars-type space operas or the sword and sorcery fiction of novels like Game of Thrones. Rather, consider Horizon 3, near-future “hard” science fiction like Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry For the Future or Neal Stephenson’s Termination Shock (both about climate change). These “world-building” science fiction writers take trends you are following in areas such as artificial intelligence, gene therapy or cybersecurity and create mind-expanding scenarios that are entertaining and sometimes alarming.
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Apr 3, 2023 | From our Leadership
Steve McCarthy, Envision Executive Director, 2022- March 31, 2023
When I was asked in late 2021 to become Envision Greater Green Bay’s first executive director, I was of course honored. The organization’s mission and vision — centered on expanding strategic foresight throughout the area — is unique in North America. No other organization is attempting this, non-profit or for-profit.
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Apr 3, 2023 | Strategic Foresight
Phil Hauck, Envision Board President
As they complete their Strategic Foresight training with Garry Golden, our graduates recognize the value of staying in touch and continuing to support each other. A number of workshop participants have asked us to create such opportunities to get together with like-minded former participants to discuss trends they are watching and techniques they are using to infuse Strategic Foresight thinking within their organizations. Our response has been to create small, committed Network Cohorts.
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Apr 3, 2023 | Strategic Foresight
No topic received more attention than artificial intelligence as our winter 2023 cohort shared their final
presentations and received their certificates of completion. Representatives of the following
organizations completed their Strategic Foresight training on March 31:
St. Norbert College
Green Bay Police Department
HSHS WI/Prevea Health
Bellin Health
Foundations Health & Wholeness
Greater Green Bay Chamber
Northeast Wisconsin Technical College
Bay Towel, Inc.
O’Connor Connective
Click here for the complete story.
Mar 20, 2023 | Signals to Watch
Chris Davis, Envision Board member and Green Bay Chief of Police
High-profile incidents involving police use of force over the past several years have increased scrutiny of police policy, culture, and training. A February 15 piece on ABC News highlights the stark difference between police training in the United States and that in other developed nations. For example, the average length of a basic police training program in the US is 22 weeks, compared with 15 to 21 months in Japan and 2 ½ years in Germany.
A recent report by the Police Executive Research Forum discusses the lack of standardization of training across the nation’s 17,000 municipal, county, and state policing agencies.
A likely future trend in policing will be greater standardization of training, as well as increased basic and ongoing training for police officers. This trend will benefit communities in terms of better police service. It will, however, significantly increase the cost of operating a police department. This may very well combine with a trend toward consolidating smaller police departments into larger agencies serving numerous political subdivisions.
Improved training standards for American police officers will definitely be a trend to watch in the future, as it will have significant implications for public policy and finance while offering the promise of improved public safety service in our communities.
Mar 11, 2023 | Signals to Watch
Heidi Selberg, Envision Board member Upward Mobility Signals Team
Access to transportation has been identified by the Urban Institute and others as a critical factor in boosting upward mobility. But what happens when the definition of access to transportation changes? How do cities and rural areas respond? What infrastructure is necessary, and what becomes obsolete? And what are the implications for the environment?
These questions and others are addressed in a recent report in the Washington Post. In ‘I’ll call an Uber or 911’: Why Gen Z Doesn’t Want to Drive, reporter Shannon Osaka notes declining rates of car ownership among Gen Z (born 1996-2012) and fewer getting their driver’s licenses in their teens – if at all. Reasons include the costs of car ownership, anxiety about driving and possible accidents, and environmental concerns. The availability of transportation alternatives makes it easier not to have a driver’s license or one’s own vehicle – and public transportation is not necessarily the primary alternative. E-scooters, e-bikes, ride-sharing, and on-line alternatives all provide options to driving a traditional vehicle to be with others.
Will it last? Will the trend materialize in less urban areas? And does this change the model for public transportation? Perhaps it already has, as municipalities develop agreements with scooter and bike companies to offer short term use of such vehicles. Another trend to watch!
Mar 7, 2023 | Horizons Newsletter by Envision
Explore Envision’s newsletter, the March 2023 Horizons. We highlight the successful March 1 World Futures Day celebration with Thomas Frey, “gifts from the pandemic,” and other forward looking insights from Envision Board members.
Mar 4, 2023 | Health and Well-Being Signals
By Devon Christianson, Envision Board member and Health and Well-Being Signals Team
Younger generations are challenging companies to put their diversity and inclusion policies into action. According to a 2021 study by Deloitte, “it’s not enough to just market inclusiveness or diversity, as our results also show 57% of consumers are more loyal to brands that commit to addressing social inequities in their actions.” And true diversity and inclusion go beyond race and ethnicity. Brand loyalty also includes images and engagement with persons who identify as LGBTQ+ and those with disabilities. Companies are following suit as they see their gateway to growth reaching younger consumers with positive images and opportunities in a celebrated diverse community. The younger generations want more than just hiring practices or marketing strategies; they want to see functions and business change to match their message.
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Mar 4, 2023 | Economic Transformation Signals
Nan Nelson, Envision Board member and Economic Transformation Signals Team
Envision’s Economic Transformation Signals Team has been looking for signals related to the future of our local economy. Among the issues on our domain map are:
- the changing demographics of the workforce and organization leaders
- technological developments affecting our main economic sectors
- the local entrepreneurship and innovation ecosystem
- changing work/life patterns
We’re finding a great many signals of big change on the far horizon! In fact, so many that the team has decided to narrow our search focus for the time being to technological developments, while still keeping an eye on other areas of interest.
One such “other” intriguing signal recently surfaced in the area of workforce diversity and skill sets needed in the future: a new book by the famous animal-handling expert Temple Grandin called Visual Thinking: The Hidden Gifts of People Who Think in Pictures, Patterns and Abstractions.
Grandin, herself a visual (and autistic) thinker, makes the case for widening the neurodiversity of all work teams by recognizing the value of visual thinkers. Science writer Steve Silberman calls the book “a powerful and provocative testament to the diverse coalition of minds we’ll need to face the mounting challenges of the twenty-first century.”
Many large firms are beginning to recruit autistic individuals for their ability to concentrate and master detailed work such as computer coding. Other organizations have long valued those who can think in patterns of abstraction described by mathematics.
But Grandin contends that our increasingly verbal education system sidelines not only these thinkers, but also screens out “object visualizers” like herself. Young visual thinkers like drawing, building with toys like Legos, and are “good with their hands.” But today, hands-on learning has been scrubbed from the school curriculum—no more shop, home ec, art, theater, welding, auto mechanics, etc. Grandin, herself a PhD professor of animal science, said she was screened out of college initially by an inability to master algebra and calculus, something typical of visual thinkers. As a result, America, she contends, is losing technical skills essential to the future of manufacturing, construction, design and engineering.
Grandin’s book goes on to detail studies that show how diverse thinkers advantage teams and how real-world disasters like Fukushima and the Boeing 747 MAX result from the absence of visual thinkers on work teams.
How can you tell if you’re a visual thinker? She suggests an interesting shortcut to determining where you fall on the visual-verbal spectrum: You buy a piece of furniture and are ready to put it together. Do you read the instructions or follow the pictures?
Shouldn’t your organization’s employee recruitment program include a neurodiversity element?
Mar 4, 2023 | Upward Mobility Signals
By Judy Nagel, Envision Board Member and Upward Mobility Signals Team
Could the Indian and Chinese economies outpace the economies of the United States and Western Europe? Economic analysts say yes. Projections show the U.S. percentage of world GDP shrinking from 16% to 12%, with China’s share growing from 16% to 27% and India’s GDP growing from 7% to 16%. (These new levels are anticipated by 2100.)
So how is this possible? Currently China’s and India’s productivity growth lags behind that of the United States, but, if Chinese workers were as productive as American workers, China’s GDP would exceed the U.S. GDP by a factor of 4.3. Because this analysis is based on productivity and demographics, however, immigration growth would boost the U.S. economy in the long term.
Economists cited in “Will China and India Become the World’s Top Economies? It Depends” take note of – and exception to – a 2019 study that positions the U.S. as “the end-of-century economic kingpin.” Another perspective these authors offer puts India in the lead by 2100. Why? Because India’s population will be double that of China but with the same labor productivity. They characterize the possible position of the U.S. by century’s end as “particularly grim,” and suggest that Western Europe could move from one of the world’s largest economies to one of its smallest.
The authors identify a variety of changes that could determine the actual “economic kingpin” at the end of this century, including reduction of legal immigration into the U.S. or China’s continued one-child policy along with its preference for less efficient state enterprises over a more efficient private sector. These are definitely early signals that the response from multiple players will determine future economic dominance.
For a summary as well as links to the specific reports cited, read this article from Forbes by Stuart Anderson, Executive Director of the National Foundation for American Policy.
