Mar 4, 2023 | Upward Mobility Signals
By Judy Nagel, Envision Board Member and Upward Mobility Signals Team
Could the Indian and Chinese economies outpace the economies of the United States and Western Europe? Economic analysts say yes. Projections show the U.S. percentage of world GDP shrinking from 16% to 12%, with China’s share growing from 16% to 27% and India’s GDP growing from 7% to 16%. (These new levels are anticipated by 2100.)
So how is this possible? Currently China’s and India’s productivity growth lags behind that of the United States, but, if Chinese workers were as productive as American workers, China’s GDP would exceed the U.S. GDP by a factor of 4.3. Because this analysis is based on productivity and demographics, however, immigration growth would boost the U.S. economy in the long term.
Economists cited in “Will China and India Become the World’s Top Economies? It Depends” take note of – and exception to – a 2019 study that positions the U.S. as “the end-of-century economic kingpin.” Another perspective these authors offer puts India in the lead by 2100. Why? Because India’s population will be double that of China but with the same labor productivity. They characterize the possible position of the U.S. by century’s end as “particularly grim,” and suggest that Western Europe could move from one of the world’s largest economies to one of its smallest.
The authors identify a variety of changes that could determine the actual “economic kingpin” at the end of this century, including reduction of legal immigration into the U.S. or China’s continued one-child policy along with its preference for less efficient state enterprises over a more efficient private sector. These are definitely early signals that the response from multiple players will determine future economic dominance.
For a summary as well as links to the specific reports cited, read this article from Forbes by Stuart Anderson, Executive Director of the National Foundation for American Policy.
Nov 5, 2022 | Upward Mobility Signals
Heidi Selberg, Board Member Envision Greater Green Bay
Research on upward mobility shows that other western countries have greater rates of upward mobility than the United States. This is often attributed to those countries’ policies of offering more plentiful social supports. Further, it’s often asserted that the culture of personal responsibility and self-reliance in the United States is a significant barrier to providing the kinds of social supports present in other countries.
A front-page article in the Sunday, October 9, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel outlines this argument through a healthcare lens. It’s surprising to see this position outlined in a major daily newspaper–one that is the largest and considered to be the most influential newspaper in Wisconsin. Healthcare reporter Guy Bolton and reporting intern Alexa Jurado discuss the impact of constrained resources on health. They note the difference in public support for high-tech treatments versus the cost of providing safe and stable housing, and the growing view of healthcare leaders that more needs to be done to provide social supports. Read the full article here.
Oct 13, 2022 | Upward Mobility Signals
When Hurricane Ian decimated the west coast of the Florida peninsula in late September 2022, virtually wiping out Ft. Meyers, the community called Babcock Ranch, to its immediate north, came through with hardly a scratch. How could that be? Apparently the community was designed for success – by former Green Bay Packer lineman, Syd Kitson of Kitson and Partners! It was meant to accommodate Florida’s climate and ecosystem, offering some forward-thinking features:
- indigenous plants and natural waterways for drainage
- built 25 to 30 feet above sea level to help mitigate flooding from storm surges
- sustainable water and sewage systems
- all electric and phone lines buried
Interviewed on 60 Minutes, Kitson said, “We are the first solar-powered town in America. We have a solar field that’s 150 megawatts.” The solar field “features a massive solar array of 700,000 panels, built by Florida Power and Light. Those panels withstood Ian’s brutal beating.
“There’s a lot of water, but you don’t see a single panel that’s been dislodged. And there was quite a bit of wind that came through here over the last few days,” Kitson reported. “Gusts of over 150, and it did not take a single panel out of here, which is really just remarkable.”
Babcock Ranch community was planned to be the first solar-powered city in the country, expecting to have the world’s largest solar power array when completed. Commercial buildings and homes were designed to be energy efficient and constructed to the standards of the Florida Green Building Coalition. A tech center with an emphasis on research and development for clean energy was a key feature at Babcock Ranch from the outset.
The message is clear: Instead of climate denial, Syd Kitson has capitalized on climate change in his development. Now, through proof of his success, he has the opportunity to maximize his growth on real estate development – a huge win for him and his home owners, whose equity increased nearly overnight due to his foresight in development. This is a prime example of a foresight strategy – out of the box early.
Learn more here: Babcock Branch Real Estate and “Babcock Ranch: Solar-powered “hurricane-proof” town takes direct hit from Hurricane Ian, never loses electricity”
