Insights from Jonathan Brill’s Rogue Waves, Chapter Two:“Ten Undercurrents Will Cause the Next Rogue Wave”

In his book Rogue Waves: Future-Proof Your Business to Survive and Profit from Radical Change, futurist Jonathan Brill, the 2025 Envision Greater Green Bay’s World Futures Day keynote speaker, warns that the world’s greatest disruptions rarely come from nowhere. Instead, they rise from deep “undercurrents”—powerful, unseen forces in the social, economic, and technological seas that shape everything above them. Just as ocean undercurrents dictate the motion of surface waves, these human and technological forces steer the tides of civilization.

Brill reminds us that no matter how fast you think the future is moving, it’s moving faster. To stay ahead, leaders must recognize that every macrotrend—the sweeping changes we see in markets or culture—is the sum of thousands of smaller, individual events. Within those events lie both risk and remarkable opportunity. The key is learning to recognize the patterns before they crest into full-blown waves.

The Ten Undercurrents of Change

Brill identifies ten major undercurrents shaping our future. Understanding where they intersect is the first step toward building resilient strategy: Continue Reading The Ten Undercurrents of Change here

As you map out the domain of strategic foresight for your organization, you’ll note that national and even global trends and drivers will impact your future.  But all of us are also embedded in our local region and communities, and are affected by local economies, local governments, local workforce, etc.  Looking at local trend data and monitoring local drivers is important.  How to do that?

Good trend data on Northeast Wisconsin is collected, curated, and presented online by groups like the Greater Green Bay Chamber, Greater Green Bay Community Foundation, Brown County United Way, etc.  If the strength of the local economy and the workforce supporting it is important to your foresight project, take a look at trends followed by NEW Manufacturing Alliance.

The Alliance (NEWMA) is a group of manufacturers, educators, workforce development, chambers of commerce, and state organizations that promote manufacturing in the Northeast Wisconsin region. Its vision is that “every Northeast Wisconsin manufacturer will find the talent it needs.”

The Alliance’s 2025 Aging Workforce Study found that the average age for the production workforce is 38, which is younger than the national average of 44 years.  The average age for engineers is 42, similar to the national average.  Average tenure for production workers of 9 years was significantly higher than the national average of 4.9 years.  The engineering workforce’s tenure of 10 years is higher than the national average of 4.9 years.  The study asked how many people were 56 years and older in key occupations. Respondents said that 44% of their machinists were 56 years and older; as well as 45% of engineers 40% of plant managers and 33% of welders. Continue reading here

The recent draft of the Go Big Green Bay 2050 Comprehensive Plan seems to indicate
that Green Bay’s population may decrease in the next twenty-five years. Yet, what
goes into forecasting this type of figure? Here are some insights into what makes a
projection plausible.

Forecasting the population of a city like Green Bay isn’t about predicting one fixed
number — it’s about understanding the forces that will shape who lives, works, and
raises families here. City planners, businesses, and community leaders need these
projections to guide investments in housing, schools, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Here are the key methods — and emerging signals — that can help us anticipate what
Green Bay might look like in 2040.

1. The Cohort-Component Method
The backbone of population forecasting is the cohort-component method, which
projects how many people will be in each age group in the future. For Green Bay, this
means:

• Tracking births, as Wisconsin has seen declining fertility rates.
• Estimating deaths, with an aging Baby Boomer population that will reshape the region’s age structure.
•  Monitoring migration, which may be the biggest wildcard — will young
  professionals move here for affordable housing, or will they leave for bigger metros?

2. Trend Extrapolation
Looking at past patterns can provide clues. Green Bay’s steady but modest growth
could be extended forward using census data and housing permits. But trend
extrapolation alone may miss major shifts, like the impact of remote work allowing
professionals to live in smaller cities, or economic downturns that push people away.

Continue reading here